By Tigray Media Watch Digital Intelligence Monitoring Group, Mekelle, Tigray
Introduction: Navigating Tigray’s Post-Genocide Realities
This document seeks to provide the TDF (Tigray Defence Forces) leadership with a set of critical questions and strategic recommendations to guide Tigray’s post-genocide recovery, political restructuring, and socio-economic transformation. It emphasises the urgent need for an inclusive and functional government, robust rule of law, and the establishment of institutional frameworks to safeguard Tigray’s survival, unity, and sovereignty.
Without effective governance and the rule of law, Tigray risks descending into violence, lawlessness, and chaos—threatening the very survival of all Tigrayans, regardless of their social, economic, or political standing. The following analysis underscores the importance of immediate action to address these existential threats.
The Dangers of Lawlessness and Absence of Governance: The Existential Threat of Chaos
Without a functioning government and institutions, violence and anarchy become inevitable.
An existential threat is not selective; it affects generals, ministers, the rich, the poor, and every citizen of Tigray.
Historical Lessons and Global Parallels
Countries like Somalia, Libya, and Sudan illustrate how the absence of effective governance leads to the rise of warlords, criminal syndicates, and unending civil wars.
Tigray cannot afford to follow these paths; survival depends on order, law, and stability.
Establishing a Tigray National Assembly Council
Establishing an all-inclusive national assembly council is vital for ensuring broad-based representation of all Tigrayans, regardless of their political affiliations or beliefs.
An all-inclusive council can serve as the foundation for drafting legislation, resolving disputes, and creating a roadmap for democratic governance.
The importance for TDF and Tigray’s Military Leadership
A structured and lawful system strengthens military leadership by ensuring accountability and separation of powers.
The TDF leadership should actively support this initiative to safeguard its institutional integrity and credibility.
District and Zonal Administration
A well-defined council can establish zonal and district administrations that function under clear laws and government orders.
This reduces the risk of regional power struggles and ensures equitable resource distribution.
Lessons from the Past—TPLF’s Political Failures: Pre-Genocide vs. Post-Genocide Political Realities
The TPLF’s rigid ideological framework contributed to Tigray’s diplomatic isolation and failure to prevent genocide.
This failure must be openly acknowledged and addressed to rebuild trust amongst Tigrayans, especially the youth.
Rejecting TPLF’s Repressive and Outdated Ideologies
The persistence of outdated political ideologies isolates Tigray internationally and weakens its internal unity and forging allies.
Military Setbacks and Political Responsibility
Reforming the TPLF and embracing new political dynamics is crucial for rebuilding public trust and unity in Tigray.
The reversal of the TDF’s military advances, including the failure to secure Addis Ababa, was not due to military shortcomings but rather TPLF’s diplomatic and political failures.
The leadership must learn from these lessons and adopt a more pragmatic and inclusive approach.
Establish a Tigray Independent Investigation Commission
Investigate pre-genocide and post-genocide political failures, including TPLF’s lack of preparation, deterrence strategies, and diplomatic missteps.
Such a commission would provide accountability and pave the way for future resilience.
Strengthen Military Confidentiality and Security Policies
- Develop classified information policies to safeguard military strategies and digital intelligence.
- TDF leadership must implement disciplinary measures against individuals who compromise military national secrets to keep enemies guessing about its military operational movements and maintain its credibility.
Separate Party and Government
Tigray’s governance should be independent of TPLF or any single political party’s influence.
The military’s role must remain neutral and focused on defending Tigray’s sovereignty.
Adopt International Best Practices
The TDF can draw lessons from successful military models like the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), emphasising neutrality, strategic independence, and operational confidentiality.
Strategic Questions for the TDF Leadership on Governance and Rule of Law
Why are there no immediate efforts to maintain law and order and contain lawlessness under control within Tigray?
What steps are being taken to ensure the separation of military and political powers?
On Reforming TPLF
Do you recognise the widespread rejection of TPLF’s ideological rigidity by the younger generation and the international community?
Why is there no push to reform TPLF into a modern and inclusive political entity?
On Accountability and Transparency
Why hasn’t a national investigation commission been established to address past failures and prevent future crises?
What measures are in place to ensure that military leadership remains free from political influence and interference?
On Military Integrity and Strategy
Why does the TDF lack comprehensive policies for military intelligence and confidentiality?
How does the TDF plan to restore and enhance its international credibility?
Call to Action: Immediate Establishment of a Transitional Government
A government must be formed to provide security, stability, and leadership during this critical period.
Encourage Broad-Based Political Dialogue
All political entities, civil society, and youth groups must be included in shaping Tigray’s future.
Invest in Diplomacy and International Relations
Tigray must rebuild its diplomatic reputation through pragmatic and inclusive policies.
Conclusion: Unity, Survival, and Progress
Tigray’s survival depends on unity, strong governance, and forward-looking strategies. The TDF leadership has a unique and critical role to play in guiding Tigray through this transformative period.
By addressing the questions and recommendations outlined in this document, the leadership can ensure a stable, secure, and prosperous future for all Tigrayans.